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General Musings

Why Defeating Russia in Ukraine Carries Second Order Importance

dan spalinger January 31, 2023

Was reading through a brief article today on NATO pressing South Korea to provide arms to Ukraine in its fight against Russia (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-nato-urges-south-korea-participation-be006936069bfed0ec4b39491754b333). South Korea? Really??

I mean you can kind of get to the idea of a direct threat to the United States by Russia given its near peer status on the world stage, aggression in Eastern Europe, Syria, Libya, ties with China, general kleptocratic nature, assassinations, Putin’s stated desire to recreate not the USSR but Russia of the mid 19th century, etc. You can make an even greater case as to Russia’s threats to European NATO and prior Russian states like Estonia, Latia, Lithuania, Ukraine, etc. as well as those states in its sphere of influence but tangentially independent (Bulgaria, Hungary, Moldova, etc.) But South Korea? You have to go pretty far to get to a direct threat by Russia to South Korean interests.

So you have all of Europe including the Nordics, Iberia, and much of Eastern Europe as well as the US, Canada, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Israel and others assisting Ukraine militarily and economically. While not a full blown World War…it is a “world war” in all other sense. With other major players (China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Nigeria, South Africa, Saudi, etc.) largely staying out of it for now, why are we (the US specifically) so concerned with trying to defeat or degrade Russia’s military forces with what appears to be the least amount of blood and treasure (except money—that we can print in endless supply)?

Its not to defeat Russia or to dethrone Putin.

I came to that realization in reading this article here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/usaf-general-warns-of-war-with-china-over-taiwan-in-2025

And the real importance of the fight is not being done at the forefront of the minds of those actually pushing Ukraine…you think Biden, Pelosi or the other political apparatchiks in DC know what they are doing? Not hardly. Nor do I think that Miley or Austin have a clue what they are doing. All are too busy figuring out which face diaper to wear and what self flagellating training courses they are going to require of our forces while degrading our military’s ability to be an effective killing machine.

No, the true reason why the conflict takes on the importance it does (drawing in global parties) and requiring a defeat/degradation of Russia is that it would eliminate the prospect of a two front war in the coming and inevitable confrontation with China. Make no mistake, Russia has a plethora or aged men, material, ammo, equipment, etc. but at its heart its Iraq circa 1991 on steroids. A bloated armed force used to getting its way out of its sheer bulk rather than combat effectiveness. Without a centime of modern airpower, artillery, tanks, or virtually heavy weaponry of any kind, Ukraine’s small infantry, small arms based units have obliterated any pretense to Russia as a military power. Now, they still have thousands of men and decrepit tanks and gear they can throw at the battle, and probably will, but every day that goes by, they get weaker, using reserves they can’t afford to lose.

With this in mind, we turn to China…they are growing by leaps and bounds in traditional capabilities—churning out ships at a rate not seen since the US industrialization of WWII, developing near-peer equivalent airframes (though without the engines or pilots the West has), burrowing themselves into Africa and the Pacific islands, mass producing missile salvos and sustaining the largest manned army on earth. They still aren’t quite at the point where they could defeat the US and West 1V1 in a straight up confrontation but they aren’t far either. Advances in AI, quantum computing, drones and other asymmetric efforts could well bring the balance of power even closer.

The West could NOT successfully take on Russia in Eastern Europe and China in the Pacific at the same time and the most important people (Xi, Putin, some at the CIA, some in Congress, some in the military) know this. This is the true nature of the threat posed by Putin. If the West has to tie itself down to supplying mass quantities of arms and men to keep Russia from rolling its arms across its former territories as it has been doing for the past decade and a half in a more slow roll approach, it could never simultaneously take on China’s impending Taiwan takeover, it would fold without a whimper. China isn’t ready to take on the US as of today, its still ramping up production to the point where it wants to be—which is where it was in Korea and Russia during WWII, able to simply overwhelm opposing forces in sheer number-their ships and planes don’t have to be as good as ours…not nearly so, they can just mass produce them at a scale unheard of, but they aren’t there quite yet.

In a few years though? Those air incursions over Taiwan aren’t being done for fun. Preparations for the most difficult operation in any military’s handbook (an amphibious landing against a contested shore) are well underway in China. While China can fill the sea with ships and land thousands of men on Taiwan’s shores…it remains extremely vulnerable to submarine incursions/attack as well as air based counterattacks. The US won’t be sending its carrier fleets in range of China’s land based anti-ship capabilities, but is more than capable of deploying an aircap over the entire Pacific that China can’t match—opening its supply, transport, and any other water based craft required for the invasion at extreme risk…Then if China holds a beachhead? US air and seapower will get an even greater fixed target list incurring a price even China may not wish to pay.

So where does that leave us? Unfortunately, as much as it might be nice to stay out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and make the Libertarians out there happy (who have never acknowledged that violence and strategic thinking is required if one is going to exist in a violent world—which I always find weird for a group that always claims to want critical/advanced thinking) it would leave the West and specifically the US grossly out of options when it comes to fighting wars on two sides of the planet. For all the yammering coming out of the “generals” and “admirals” in Washington, the US does not anymore possess a true five ocean navy or any capability to fight two major wars at the same time, as is given lip service to in their doctrine.

It must seek to limit what forces are required to contest a peer state to a single theater. It has lots of shiny toys…some of the best toys ever created for the destruction of an opposing force…but the supply of them is limited, its government coffers dwindled, its people indebted, its culture stuck in perpetual adolescence and navel gazing.

So why not throw everything we have (F-35s, full tank divisions, high end ballistics, etc.) against the Russians and defeat them quickly to prepare for China? Wouldn’t it then benefit us to get the Russian conflict over ASAP? Its a very delicate line we are playing with Russia. Here the Libertarians and peaceniks are right. Embattling a nuclear power who still possesses mass reserves of all kinds (note Russia’s submarines have stayed out of it, as has a significant portion of their high end aircraft) and a penchant for asymmetric violence is not something to be taken lightly. Walking that line of supplying Ukraine with sufficient armament to degrade and defeat Russia while not tipping them into full psychotic killers of world ending catastrophes is a difficult proposition. We don’t want to have to expend limited and valuable resources there. Every F-35, or Abrams, or tomahawk lost/expended there is one less for use in the South Pacific (yes, I know the Abrams is highly unlikely to show up in that conflict due to its nature—you get the point). If anything, use of those resources there may accelerate the China conflict as we’d have shown our hand in terms of what side of the globe we were willing to take the gloves off for. China knows our limitations just as much as some of us do.

There is a saying that propagates throughout certain corners of right wing commentary every time a rainbow flag is pushed by the US military, standards reduced, fleet or air wing downsized, project “contested” by lawyers of a competing company, our best soldiers pushed out due to politicization, or CRT theory taught over marksmenship…

“We are going to lose a major war”

That most certainly is true if we fail to defeat Russia before China makes its move. The clock ticks both ways. Which chimes first?

Tags russia, russia ukraine, russia ukraine china, supply ukraine, ukraine war, china taiwan ukraine
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Dakar 2023 Nissan Results

dan spalinger January 27, 2023

The other day we did the Classic entries, today we’re doing the participants in the primary event. This is much tougher and the real show. Recent years have seen declining numbers of entrants using Nissans but Redlined Motoring has really brought the platform back to being a major player.

Unfortunately a number of Nissan entries that were expected to be present this year, did not show. Given that it appears as if the entire Turkmenistan team of Patrols did not attend and there had been a number of other “Russian-related” teams that did not attend, I suspect there was a bit of a kerfuffle between the ASO and this group which unfortunately resulted in them not participating.

That said…the Nissan results are as follows and are extremely impressive with all four of the Redline built Navara’s crossing the finish with Daniel Schroeder being the foremost among them. Despite this being one of the older Navara’s produced by Redline, Schroeder has lots of prior experience with this being his 7th Dakar and second behind the wheel and finishing 36th last year. In three prior Dakar’s he was codriver for his father and also has two Dakar finishes on a bike in 2011 and 2012.

#235 Daniel Schroeder, Nissan Navara VK50—56th of 123

#245 Thomas Bell, Nissan Navara VK56—72nd of 123

#249 Mohamad Altwijri, Nissan Navara—DNS

#259 Ibrahim Almuhna, Nissan Patrol—DNF on Stage 6

#263 Ronald Van Loon, Nissan Navara VK50—106th of 123

#266 Dave Klaassen, Nissan Navara VK56—80th of 123

#271 Gurbanberdi Danatarow, Nissan Patrol—DNS

#272 Hydyrberdi Abdurahmanov, Nissan Patrol—DNS

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Tags nissan dakar, 2023 nissan dakar results, nissan racing results, dakar, redlined motoring results, redline motoring dakar
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Dakar 2023 Classic Nissan Results

dan spalinger January 25, 2023

For both the main show as well as the Classic entrants, 2023 was a solid event for Nissan based platforms. The lead story is that of the South African built Navaras which went four for four in finishers showing excellent reliability and speed. They aren’t likely to compete with the Gazoo Hilux machines but as an option for competitors looking to run well but not at a factory backed level, these Redlined Motorsport creations (whether powered by the VK50 or VK56) will be tempting options.

We’ll start in the Classic entries where there were 13 Nissan based entries and all 13 finished. The Classic entries saw an 11% DNF rate so not nearly as hard as the main race but seeing all 13 across the finish is still really solid for platforms that are 30 years old. Future Classic editions should continue to see old Nissan’s brought forth for use given the prevalence of Nissans at the pointy end of the field in the late 90s, early ‘00s.

#722 Valentina Casella, Nissan Pathfinder—17th of 80 finishers

#729 Gian Paolo Tobia Cavagna, Nissan Patrol GR—27th of 80

#748 Luis Pedrals Marot, Nissan Patrol K260—48th of 80

#749 Radek Vara, Nissan Patrol GRY60—58th of 80

#750 Urbano Alfonso Gherardo Clerici, Nissan Terrano (Pathfinder)—50th of 80

#754 Francisco Javier Benavente, Nissan Terrano (Pathfinder)—24th of 80

#757 Jean-Christophe Moine, Nissan Patrol Y60—14th of 80

#767 Gian Enrico Duetschler, Nissan Terrano 2 (Pathfinder)—31st of 80

#773 Luis Barbero Garcia, Nissan Patrol 260—23rd of 80

#790 Riccardo Garosci, Nissan Teranno 2 (Pathfinder)—4th of 80

#792 Franco Majno, Nissan Terrano (Pathfinder)—61st of 80

#796 Adriano Furlotti, Nissan Terrano (Pathfinder)—47th of 80

#806 Peter Schey, Nissan Terrano (Pathfinder)—28th of 80

Tags dakar 2023, dakar 2023 nissan, dakar nissan, dakar classic nissan, dakar nissan entries, dakar results, dakar terrano, dakar pathfinder, dakar patrol
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Book Review: No Way Down

dan spalinger January 23, 2023

Well, they can’t all be winners. Despite all the superlatives on the front and back cover claiming that this work was the equivalent of a new “Into Thin Air” which recapped a first hand perspective of a climbing disaster on Everest about 15 years before the events taking place in this book, its really not even close.

The largest issue here is that the author was not present on K2 during these events as Jon Krakauer was on Everest. Nor is the author here in Graham Bowley, an actual climber. Both factors result in a very dry work. This is a newspaper recap of events gathered second hand from interviews weeks and months after the event. Bowley doesn’t know the difficulties of operating at altitude, the cold and wind of the high peaks, the gasping for breath in thin air, the smell of yak dung fires or the taste of warm goat milk.

The whole work comes off very antiseptic. That doesn’t mean the work is incorrect or wrong. It may very well have recapped the order of events and described disputed decisions appropriately. It just doesn’t carry the emotion and rawness of being there the way “Into Thin Air” does. Further, while Krakauer has an obvious skill at “investigatory” writing—deeply researching a topic, covering events, drawing reasonable conclusions as he has done over and over in his writing career (see “Into the Wild”, “Under the Banner of Heaven”, “Where Men Win Glory”, etc.) Bowley doesn’t have that. It certainly doesn’t feel like he has a deep understanding of the history of K2 and its climbers or feel like he knows what its like to travel from Lahore to K2 basecamp. Instead it comes across as he has been airdropped into the events to cover them at a superficial level providing the who, what, where, when (but not the why) of the events. That he does. Its simply doesn’t carry the emotion or interest that such events in the hands of a more capable writer would bring.

Tags no way down book review, k2 climb, k2 book review, death on k2
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Book Review: The Naked Warriors

dan spalinger January 20, 2023

This was an old book of my father’s gifted to him back upon its issuance in 1956. The above photo is of a later version than the one I possess. The first edition of these are actually a bit of a collector’s item in the military world going for $50 and up if it is in decent shape.

The core of the work regards the formation and early missions of the Navy teams that would eventually be dubbed “SEALs” but when created were UDT or Underwater Demolition Teams. Covering their creation in the middle of WWII it is interesting to see the start of what would become the world’s foremost kinetic operators. The original UDT efforts were decidedly not offensive in nature. Their tasks throughout all of WWII and into Korea were exclusively related to reconnaissance and obstacle destruction in preparation for amphibious landings. From North Africa to Normandy and particularly the Pacific, UDT teams blew up tank traps, determined water depths, cleared shipwrecks, located mines and so on. The title of the book “Naked Warriors” derives from the fact these teams were essentially unarmed. In fact they often were scolded when they became overzealous in joining the Marines or Army ashore and taking action to the enemy—quite a different role from how the SEALs are viewed today.

The book itself is a good primer or recap of that development and early operational history of these UDTs in a chronological order. So it makes a great reference book for research and the history of this area of Navy operations. The book is quite dry however. It includes a few anecdotes and comments on the characters who play various roles in the actions covered but it is not a narrative of any sort. Its more a collection of “The UDT teams were formed here…they first were seeing action here…then this other team was over there…then a commander thought they would succeed here”. As a historical record? Excellent and one that records the important deeds and actions of exceptionally brave men. So, its essentially a great synopsis of after action reporting. A work of art or crafted word it is not. Keep it on your shelf for reference, not for pleasure.

Tags naked warriors book review, naked warriors udt, udt book review, naked warriors navy seal team, frogmen seals udt
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TV Review: Rogue Heroes

dan spalinger January 3, 2023

This one one of 2022’s revelations that likely saw few viewers in the US (comparatively). Right in my sweet spot of shows I am bound to like, Rogue Heroes checked all the boxes.

British? Yup.

Historical? Yup

Based on reality? Yup

Military? Yup

Fantastic actors? Yup

Beautiful landscapes? Yup


I mean what is not to love. You have the formation of one of the world’s tier 1 special forces group in the desert of WWII played out by Jack O’Connell, Alfie Allen, and Conor Swindell with support from Dominic West. O’Connell is the brightest of these lights and builds upon his fantastic work in another lesser seen BBC work, also in ‘22 and that I greatly enjoyed (The North Water).

While The North Water was a decidedly cold and icy adventure, Rogue Heroes is based in the deserts of North Africa and filled with familiar locales—Cairo, Benghazi, etc. while the color palate used by the film makers is just right in its washed out, tan, tendencies. You can feel the grit finding its way into every crevice of the human body in these scenes.

Here O’Connell is playing Paddy Mayne and while he is of lesser rank than Allen and Swindell’s characters it is clear from the start where the audience’s interest will lie. He owns every scene and Paddy Mayne lends his legends to military iconoclasts who did it their way to the aggravation of their peers and commanders but looked fondly on by the victories they gained.

Based upon the book of the same name by Ben MacIntyre (which I will now have to read) it is “factual” in as much as any TV show can be but the real story is so fantastic (Really? Raiding the New Zealanders for equipment and food because the high command won’t provide you supplies? Yup…true…) It shows the life and death decisions made under extreme duress and those fateful days where the free Western world hung in the balance and only a few hard men stood in the way of true evil. No one is imagined as perfect, good men die, questionable deeds are performed…its reality.

A great work of TV and one worth anyone’s time. Season two is supposedly in the works and will focus on the SAS efforts in Italy and Europe in general as WWII progressed. This isn’t a documentary intended to enlighten you to the material, tactics, or strategy of war. Nor is it supposed to be encyclopedic of its retelling of the SAS origins. Its just a fun and emotional tale of individuals making their own mark on history.

Tags rogue heroes review, rogue heroes epix, jack o'connell, alfie allen, conor swindell, SAS origins, rogue heroes sas, dominic west rogue heroes
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    • Jan 15, 2021 Classic Nissans at the 2021 Dakar--Results! Jan 15, 2021
    • Jan 1, 2021 Book Review: River Master by Cecil Kuhne Jan 1, 2021
  • December 2020
    • Dec 26, 2020 Book Review: Tarawa by Robert Sherrod Dec 26, 2020
    • Dec 8, 2020 Chuck Yeager--One of the Last Hard Men Dec 8, 2020
    • Dec 4, 2020 New Gas Intake for Race Truck... Dec 4, 2020
  • November 2020
    • Nov 23, 2020 Classic Nissans at Dakar 2021 Nov 23, 2020
    • Nov 19, 2020 TV Review: Long Way Up Nov 19, 2020
    • Nov 12, 2020 Nissans at Baja Portalegre 2020 Nov 12, 2020
    • Nov 2, 2020 Windham Vs. Londonderry 10/31/20 Gallery Nov 2, 2020
  • October 2020
    • Oct 25, 2020 Windham Vs. Salem 10/24/20 Gallery Oct 25, 2020
    • Oct 23, 2020 TV Review: Tiny World Oct 23, 2020
    • Oct 19, 2020 Book Review: Alas, Babylon Oct 19, 2020
  • September 2020
    • Sep 28, 2020 Book Review: West With The Night Sep 28, 2020
    • Sep 22, 2020 Film Review: Midnight Special Sep 22, 2020
  • August 2020
    • Aug 13, 2020 Film Review: The Battle of Algiers Aug 13, 2020
  • July 2020
    • Jul 30, 2020 Baja Szczecinek Nissans and Result Jul 30, 2020
    • Jul 20, 2020 Book Review: Stranger in a Strange Land Jul 20, 2020
  • June 2020
    • Jun 16, 2020 Film Review: Da 5 Bloods Jun 16, 2020
  • March 2019
    • Mar 16, 2019 Three Sci-Fi Novels...Two Good...One, Not So Much... Mar 16, 2019
    • Mar 5, 2019 Route 500 Trans-Lab Highway Stickers Mar 5, 2019
    • Mar 1, 2019 True Detective Season 3 Review Mar 1, 2019
  • February 2019
    • Feb 19, 2019 Baja Russia Northern Forest Rally 2019 Feb 19, 2019
    • Feb 14, 2019 Nissans at the Kameel 250 Feb 14, 2019
    • Feb 5, 2019 Mexico Route 1 "Euro" Stickers Feb 5, 2019
    • Feb 5, 2019 Film Review: They Shall Not Grow Old Feb 5, 2019
    • Feb 3, 2019 Nissan Truck Sales January 2019 Feb 3, 2019
  • January 2019
    • Jan 26, 2019 Nissans at Dakar 2019--Final Results Jan 26, 2019
    • Jan 19, 2019 Book Review: A Separate Peace by John Knowles Jan 19, 2019
    • Jan 14, 2019 Nissans at Dakar 2019 Update Jan 14, 2019
    • Jan 12, 2019 Ashton Woods, Windham, NH Jan 12, 2019
    • Jan 8, 2019 Nissans at Dakar 2019 Jan 8, 2019
    • Jan 4, 2019 Film Review: The Way Back Jan 4, 2019
    • Jan 3, 2019 December 2018 Nissan Sales Jan 3, 2019
  • December 2018
    • Dec 30, 2018 Black Mirror Bandersnatch Dec 30, 2018
    • Dec 25, 2018 Too Old for Bad Books Dec 25, 2018
 

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